204 Cascade Dr #66 · Lebanon, OR 97355

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Other public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1972 ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful 3 bedroom - 2 bathroom home with a large back deck with views to the north! Great split-layout with a big master bedroom with walk-in- closet one side of the home and 2 bedroom 1 bath on the other. Both bathrooms have been updated. High ceilings throughout and an oversized heat pump keeping utility costs low. This home has a newer rubber membrane roofing also a new storage shed and carport on this corner lot. Financing available.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1972
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty negotiable; No assessments/liens reported; Financing available (per remarks)
• HOA & community: Adult park community; Park rent covers water, sewer, garbage, and cable

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; One garage space
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Park rent includes water, sewer, garbage, and cable; Electric water heater
• Home design: Double-wide manufactured home; Made by Spacemaster; Located in an adult park (Santiam Village); Cream exterior color; Corner lot with large back deck and north-facing views; Entry and living spaces on the main level
• Construction: Built in 1972; Pier foundation; Aluminum siding; Roof listed as 'Other' (refer to remarks); newer rubber membrane roof noted in remarks
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Shed/outbuilding; Handicap amenities (refer to remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level (15 x 15); Two additional bedrooms on the main level (10 x 10 each)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms on the main level (both updated)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Forced air
• Interior features: High-speed communication available; Carpet and vinyl flooring with luxury vinyl plank
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the main level (8 x 8); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 2.9% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#126 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities D+.
• Lebanon Community SD 9 (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 58 in OR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.18%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $37,785
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $113,346
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97355

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $860

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
362 Seven Oaks Ln Lebanon, OR	3.0	2.5	1513	$2,250	$1.49	43d	2	0.35mi
86 Weldwood Dr Lebanon, OR	2.0	2.0	1222	$1,650	$1.35	43d	1	0.38mi
3463 Snow Bird Dr Lebanon, OR	2.0	2.0	1621	$2,200	$1.36	43d	1	0.54mi
26 Sand Ridge Ct Lebanon, OR	3.0	2.5	1696	$2,345	$1.38	43d	1	0.58mi
2656 S Main Rd #107 Lebanon, OR	3.0	2.5	1402	$1,950	$1.39	43d	1	0.70mi
300 Sand Ridge Ct Lebanon, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	944	$1,525	$1.61	43d	6	0.75mi
2180 Franklin St Lebanon, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,695	$1.97	43d	6	0.83mi
E Airport Rd Lebanon, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$1,995	$2.01	43d	14	0.96mi
1956 S Second St Lebanon, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,445	$1.72	43d	7	1.05mi
1900 S 2nd St Unit A304 Lebanon, OR	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,700	$1.44	43d	1	1.09mi
1900 S Second St Unit A201 Lebanon, OR	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,450	$1.35	43d	1	1.09mi
1096 Fuji Ln Lebanon, OR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,395	$1.84	43d	1	1.20mi
1515 David Dr Unit 1515-DA Lebanon, OR	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,450	$1.31	43d	1	1.23mi
929 Wassom St Unit 929 Lebanon, OR	2.0	2.0	1202	$1,800	$1.50	43d	1	1.24mi
975 Wassom St Lebanon, OR	2.0	1.5	928	$1,525	$1.64	43d	1	1.30mi
2400 12th St Lebanon, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	926	$1,600	$1.73	43d	6	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   price $110,000 443-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $125,000 Active 443-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,067 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 57.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$680
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $8,617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,068
• After-tax cash flow: $7,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lebanon Community SD 9
• NCES district ID: 4107380
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,264
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6418
• State rank: #26 of 58 in OR

Livability — Lebanon

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #7209

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lebanon, OR
• County: Linn County · 70,700 people
• City population: 34,292
• Metro: Albany-Lebanon, OR
• Population (ZIP): 34,292
• Household income: $68,595
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1051.0

Population outlook (Linn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,026 people
• By 2030: 129,540 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 132,780 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 133,614 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 129,061 · +1.6%
• By 2100: 112,224 · -11.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Linn

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.4) · D 36.2% · R 60.6% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.4pp · 2024: -24.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.4 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+11.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -528.42%
• Current HPI: 221.8977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.55%
• Metro: Albany-Lebanon, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $110,000 WVMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $125,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $680 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.