3541 Rain Forest Dr W

Jacksonville, FL 32277

$205,000D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1991 · Townhouse · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,529/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-424/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-424/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (25.4% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $205k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.