3541 Rain Forest Dr W · Jacksonville, FL 32277

$205,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Townhouse public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1991 3,049 sqft lot Est $210k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UPDATED TOWNHOME WITH NEW WOOD AND TILE FLOORING, METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED, NEW STOVE & NEWER FRIG, FRESHLY PAINTED, BOTH BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS, GREAT LOCATION, LOW HOMEOWNER ASSOC. FEES.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• $13 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• SHORT DISTANCE TO SHOPPING
• SHORT DISTANCE TO DINING
• SHORT DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $152.78; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Attached property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Back yard fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Jack and Jill bathroom; Pantry; Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Vaulted ceiling(s); Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-424/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $205k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,940 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,276
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7604 Leafy Forest Way	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,182 (-0%)	9mo	$193,900	$164	82
7411 Colony Cove Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,242 (+4%)	11mo	$140,100	$113	74
3541 Colony Cove Trl	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,254 (+6%)	12mo	$218,000	$174	69
7375 Colony Cove Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,062 (-11%)	5mo	$228,000	$215	68
7462 Colony Cove Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,062 (-11%)	13mo	$235,000	$221	63
3401 Townsend Blvd #313	0.21mi	2/2.5	1,329 (+12%)	7mo	$94,500	$71	63
7324 Colony Cove Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,236 (+4%)	16mo	$229,900	$186	62
7627 Rain Forest Dr N	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,079 (-9%)	22mo	$185,000	$171	57
7622 Hovering Mist Way	0.08mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,328 (+12%)	20mo	$235,000	$177	53
8024 Marseilles Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,039 (-12%)	11mo	$206,000	$198	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-37,167
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-42,085
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32277

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,529 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $841/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $198,757

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3501 Townsend Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	816	$1,330	$1.63	1d	25	0.07mi
7608 Rain Forest Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	21d	1	0.10mi
3523 Colony Cove Trl W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,450	$1.37	23d	1	0.13mi
3460 Net Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,869	$1.45	3d	1	0.14mi
3545 Villa Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,695	$1.22	23d	1	0.16mi
3544 Villa Pl Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,400	$1.29	23d	1	0.19mi
3450 Townsend Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	816	$1,236	$1.51	14d	13	0.22mi
7609 Tacony Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,450	$1.23	4d	1	0.48mi
7609 Tacony Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,450	$1.23	23d	1	0.48mi
7537 Dalehurst Dr S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,524	$1.30	4d	1	0.57mi
2921 Mansion Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,845	$1.27	23d	1	0.68mi
7027 Berrywood Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,875	$1.50	23d	1	0.78mi
7716 Monetta Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,716	$1.22	23d	1	0.80mi
3459 Rogero Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1322	$1,695	$1.28	23d	1	0.90mi
7925 Merrill Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,438	$1.35	1d	46	0.93mi
8230 Dames Point Crossing Blvd N #1103 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,100	$1.00	10d	1	1.07mi
8543 Fort Caroline Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	957	$1,800	$1.88	23d	1	1.08mi
8291 Dames Point Crossing Blvd N Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	1017	$1,395	$1.37	1d	1	1.15mi
6111 Shetland Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,595	$1.48	7d	1	1.28mi
7656 Arble Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,490	$1.25	4d	1	1.33mi
7920 Merrill Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1048	$1,200	$1.14	7d	4	1.33mi
7920 Merrill Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1048	$1,100	$1.05	17d	5	1.33mi
7920 Merrill Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1048	$1,250	$1.19	1d	3	1.33mi
3517 Peeler Rd #23 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1139	$1,195	$1.05	7d	1	1.33mi
6308 Merrill Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,585	$1.23	7d	1	1.35mi
2328 Caladium Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,595	$1.12	23d	1	1.49mi
6055 Carolines Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1382	$1,598	$1.16	19d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $205,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $841 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$860/yr (+$72/mo · 102.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$841
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$973
• After-tax cash flow: $549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,338
• Household income: $61,554
• Rent vs Own: 49.1% rent · 50.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2550.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.79%
• Current HPI: 289.4062
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+262.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $205,000 realMLS
• 2009-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $98,700 Public Records
• 2009-11-27 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-11-25 Sold (MLS) $98,640 realMLS
• 2009-05-30 Listed $95,000 realMLS
• 2007-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $132,500 Public Records
• 2007-10-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-09-24 Sold (MLS) $132,500 realMLS
• 2007-07-16 Listed $139,500 realMLS
• 2003-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-15 Sold (MLS) $87,000 realMLS
• 2003-04-09 Listed $89,900 realMLS
• 2000-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $63,900 Public Records
• 1997-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $841 · +27.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.