19-23 Salmon St

San Francisco, CA 94133

$980,000A-

35 bd · None ba · 3,000 sqft · Built 1907 · MultiFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $28,481/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,139
• Tax + insurance: −$1,633
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,981
• Net cashflow: $15,727/mo
• Annual: $188,729/yr
• Cap rate: 25.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.78%
• DSCR: 4.06
• 1% rule: 2.91%
• Cash to close: $274,400

Investor read

• This is a 5 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $980k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16k ($189k/yr) — positive. Per door: $3k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $980k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($965k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $965k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $70k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.9%/yr); 60 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.4% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $274k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $28,481/mo this rent would consume 392% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 2027% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.