19-23 Salmon St · San Francisco, CA 94133

$980,000

35 bd · None ba · 3,000 sqft · MultiFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 1907 1,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 5 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in this charming Nob Hill fixer with untapped potential! 5-unit building with storage in amazing location offers skyline views from rooftop. Two of the five units are vacant. Bring your imagination! Please do not disturb tenants - 3 out of the 5 units are tenant-occupied ( & protected tenants) paying $890/mo, $1620/mo and $780/mo. There are protected tenants and no written leases. No parking. Prior owner passed away earlier this year (not on premises) and property is being sold by heirs in as-is condition. Addresses and entrances for two of the units are on opposite side of building at 18 & 20 Himmelman.

Key facts

• 1,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1907
• Listed 30 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $980k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16k ($189k/yr) — positive. Per door: $3k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $980k).
• Recommended offer: $965k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.9%/yr); 60 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $28,481/mo this rent would consume 392% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 2027% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $70k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.4% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $274k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($965k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $965,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.78%
• DSCR: 4.06
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.44% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $1,461,403
• Equity at exit: $643,538

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.8%
• Equity multiple: 15.15×
• Total profit: $3,882,413
• Equity at exit: $1,191,503

Cash invested: $274,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94133

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Rents YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $28,481 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,139
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,225 /mo · $14,700/yr
• Insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,981
• Net cashflow: $15,727

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,573

Max offer price $980,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16,405	-5% $16,066	+0% $15,727	+5% $15,389	+10% $15,050
Rent	-10% $13,477	-5% $14,602	+0% $15,727	+5% $16,852	+10% $17,977
Rate	-1.0pp $16,221	-0.5pp $15,977	base $15,727	+0.5pp $15,473	+1.0pp $15,215

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 5× units	3	1.5	$28,480
Total (5 units)			$28,481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $245,000
• Closing costs: $29,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-12-26
   status Pending
2. 2024-11-26
   listed $980,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $341,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$54,895
• − Property taxes: −$14,700
• − Insurance: −$4,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,342
• − Management: −$27,342
• − Depreciation: −$28,509
• Taxable income: $184,084
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$44,180
• After-tax cash flow: $144,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,804
• Household income: $87,191
• Rent vs Own: 83.5% rent · 16.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2027.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 48% White 34% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 40% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Chinese 34% Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.44%
• Current HPI: 168.565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.95%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-26 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2024-11-26 Listed $980,000 San Francisco MLS