3109 Cyprian Rd

Waco, TX 76655

$289,160D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,415 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,382/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$482
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,402/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $80,965

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.