3109 Cyprian Rd · Waco, TX 76655

$289,160

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,415 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $270k · 7% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Our Bellvue is one of our one-story floorplans feature in our Park Meadows community in Lorena, Texas. This comfortable 3 bedroom and 2-bathroom home is the perfect fit for you. Inside this home, you'll find approximately 1,415 square feet and has an open-concept layout designed to fit your needs. This home has beautiful features that create a welcoming ambiance, and the 2-car garage ensures plenty of space for vehicles and storage. The beautiful kitchen with flat panel birch cabinetry and granite countertops. It is set off from the living area by a kitchen island with a built-in sink. End your day by relaxing under the covered patio, where you can enjoy the nature from the backyard. The pr

Key facts

• One story floorplans
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• ONE STORY FLOORPLANS
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FLAT PANEL BIRCH CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN ISLAND WITH SINK
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3109 Cyprian Rd, Lorena TX 76655; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $289,160

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (Bellvue plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1415

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Bellvue plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,159 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,265
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2404 Cambridge	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,469 (+4%)	10mo	$280,000	$191	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-54,264
• Equity at exit: $43,115

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-56,690
• Equity at exit: $25,001

Cash invested: $80,965 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,337/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,530

Max offer price $272,250

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $-17	+0% $-117	+5% $-217	+10% $-317
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-211	+0% $-117	+5% $-23	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-43	base $-117	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,290
• Closing costs: $8,675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2813 Gilchrist Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,200	$1.44	44d	1	0.10mi
2701 Skinner Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	44d	1	0.14mi
2809 Keathley Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	44d	1	0.21mi
3217 Jackal Dr Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	21d	1	0.37mi
10312 Sierra West Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	21d	1	0.48mi
3128 Brosnan Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	44d	1	0.54mi
3225 Marston Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	44d	1	0.57mi
3117 Sherco Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	44d	1	0.57mi
1417 Chapel Creek Rd Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,295	$1.24	14d	1	1.15mi
1700 Breezy Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	785	$1,361	$1.73	14d	22	1.16mi
9720 Chapel Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,300	$2.17	14d	93	1.24mi
1800 Woodgate Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,300	$2.17	14d	132	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,160 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,160 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,160 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,160 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,160 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,160 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-05-31
   listed $289,160 Active 32 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,197
• − Property taxes: −$4,337
• − Insurance: −$1,446
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − Depreciation: −$8,412
• Taxable loss: −$6,386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,533
• After-tax cash flow: $130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Waco, Texas, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, a well-maintained exterior, and a clean interior. The home is move-in ready and has potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic upgrades and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B