2120 N Willow Dr

North Lakes, AK 99654

$289,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · Built 1984 · Other · Pending · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $207/mo
• Annual: $2,478/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.06%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (13.1% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $251k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Creek Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #55 of 156 statewide, top 37%, 468 students, 44% FRL); Colony Middle School (math 39% / reading 54%, grade D+, #9 of 36 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 31% FRL); Colony High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #32 of 61 statewide, top 52%, 1,117 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 496 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in North Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.