2120 N Willow Dr · North Lakes, AK 99654

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · Other public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1984 0.95 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Dare to Compare! Here's a BIG ranch style home on nearly an acre of level land. It has room for parking all of your rigs---and a circular driveway too. True--it's a fixer-upper--but why not earn yourself some serious equity with your skills? Go see it! This is an acquired property sold ''As-Is'' for cash or terms acceptable to the seller. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). Power and paddle boat enthusiasts will like how close the Finger Lakes Recreation center is, with its picnic, camp sites, and public use boat launch. Cottonwood Shores subdivision is located in a great commuting location---live here and you can pass on the heavier traffic congestion of the Wasilla co

Key facts

• Walls of windows
• French doors
• Deck

Tags

• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• SOUTH-FACING BACKYARD
• DECK
• WALLS OF WINDOWS
• FRENCH DOORS
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in North Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Creek Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #55 of 156 statewide, top 37%, 468 students, 44% FRL); Colony Middle School (math 39% / reading 54%, grade D+, #9 of 36 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 31% FRL); Colony High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #32 of 61 statewide, top 52%, 1,117 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 496 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $251,186 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.06%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-41,041
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-47,297
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99654

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,703/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,250

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2949 E Palmdale Dr #2 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,295	$1.43	43d	1	1.46mi
2949 E Palmdale Dr #3 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,295	$1.43	23d	1	1.46mi
2907 E Palmdale Dr #1 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.5	1716	$2,995	$1.75	43d	1	1.49mi
2907 E Palmdale Dr #3 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.5	1716	$3,095	$1.80	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   price $289,000
3. 2026-01-26
   status Active
4. 2025-12-07
   price $305,000
5. 2025-10-28
   listed $317,000 Active
6. 2003-06-05
   soldstatus
7. 2003-03-31
   listed $158,500
8. 2002-11-26
   listed $99,900
9. 2001-06-15
   listed $103,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,703 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,571 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$868/yr (+$72/mo · 51.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$1,703
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$2,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$582
• After-tax cash flow: $3,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — North Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Lakes, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $97,544
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 872.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.68%
• Current HPI: 196.8728
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+180.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $289,000 AKMLS
• 2026-01-26 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $305,000 AKMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $317,000 AKMLS
• 2003-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-31 Listed $158,500 AKMLS
• 2002-11-26 Listed $99,900 AKMLS
• 2001-06-15 Listed $103,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,703 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.