8661 Triumph Cir

Wildwood, FL 34785

$280,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,134/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$133
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-320/mo
• Annual: $-3,835/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.89%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bushnell Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 760 students, 61% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL); Wildwood Middle/ High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 843 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 660 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Wildwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.