261 Tognazzini

Guadalupe, CA 93434

$200,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 753 sqft · Built 1924 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,468/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $706/mo
• Annual: $8,473/yr
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.13%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#352 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Santa Maria Joint Union High (urban): math 22% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #840 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Valley High (3,220 students, 74% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.