261 Tognazzini · Guadalupe, CA 93434

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 753 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1924 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Probate sale with the county of Santa Barbara requiring court confirmation. All offers will be reviewed on June 1,2026. This property will be sold as is.

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Outdoor entertaining
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• SHORT DRIVE TO BEACH ACCESS
• ROOM FOR GARDENS
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• RV PARKING
• WORKSHOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Neighborhood amenities include biking paths and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with front entry and direct access; Attached carport; Driveway; One parking/garage space
• Utilities: Public water (district); Public sewer / sewer connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-story house; Fixer condition; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Adobe construction
• Exterior features: Level lot with street access; Patio present; Storage building and shed on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Two main level bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level home with front door entry; Main floor primary bedroom; All bedrooms on the main floor; Primary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups/features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#352 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Santa Maria Joint Union High (urban): math 22% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #840 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Valley High (3,220 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $194,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.13%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $442,764
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4679 2nd St	0.11mi	2/1.0	806 (+7%)	16mo	$420,000	$521	70
4853 Hernandez Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	797 (+6%)	22mo	$469,000	$588	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $12,515
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $68,612
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93434

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4813 Almaguer Ave Guadalupe, CA	3.0	1.5	1013	$3,000	$2.96	14d	1	0.20mi
267 Camp Ln Guadalupe, CA	2.0	1.5	744	$2,100	$2.82	14d	1	0.23mi
744 Olivera St Unit 744-303 Guadalupe, CA	3.0	1.0	952	$2,250	$2.36	14d	1	0.50mi
864 Pioneer St Guadalupe, CA	3.0	1.0	942	$2,450	$2.60	14d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $200,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Probate sale with the county of Santa Barbara requiring court confirmation. All offers will be reviewed on June 1,2026. This property will be sold as is.

18. 2026-05-15
    listed $200,000 Active 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Probate sale with the county of Santa Barbara requiring court confirmation. All offers will be reviewed on June 1,2026. This property will be sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥80°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,370
• − Management: −$2,370
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $5,519
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,324
• After-tax cash flow: $7,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Maria Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0635670
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 34.02/100
• National rank: #10311
• State rank: #840 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Guadalupe

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #11963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guadalupe, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,451

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 40% White 8% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 79%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 29% English-only · Spanish 66% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.94%
• Current HPI: 331.0601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $200,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $200,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,342 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.