105 Jones St

Woodson, IL 62695

$168,900D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,419/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-385/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $47,292

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-385/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (16.0% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#716 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jacksonville SD 117 (town): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #407 of 620 in IL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Murrayville-Woodson Elem School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #658 of 2,056 statewide, top 35%, 125 students, 0% FRL); Jacksonville Middle School (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #444 of 665 statewide, top 67%, 718 students, 0% FRL); Jacksonville High School (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #312 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 893 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 51% district-wide (51 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $169k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.