105 Jones St · Woodson, IL 62695

$168,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1971 10,000 sqft lot Est $177k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Long time owner has showed this home lots of TLC! You'll want to PARTY on the deck w/ a pergola. Walk-out finished basement is great for entertaining w/ a large WET bar. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, vinyl siding, average utility is $127/mo.... that's an easy keep! Furnace & air new in '01.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Wet bar
• Expansive rear deck

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• WET BAR
• EXPANSIVE REAR DECK
• LOWER LEVEL PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1971
• Construction: Not new construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Paved road access; Lot is sloped

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (approx. 13 x 9, laminate)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level (approx. 11 x 13, hardwood); Second bedroom on main level (approx. 12 x 10, carpet); Third bedroom on main level (approx. 9 x 9, carpet); Fourth bedroom in basement (approx. 12 x 10, carpet; no egress window)
• Flooring: Hardwood in primary bedroom; Carpet in multiple bedrooms and basement family room; Laminate in living room, dining room and kitchen; Luxury vinyl plank in laundry
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Gas water heater; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full walk-out basement; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in basement (approx. 13 x 6, luxury vinyl plank)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-385/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#716 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jacksonville SD 117 (town): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #407 of 620 in IL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Murrayville-Woodson Elem School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #658 of 2,056 statewide, top 35%, 125 students, 0% FRL); Jacksonville Middle School (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #444 of 665 statewide, top 67%, 718 students, 0% FRL); Jacksonville High School (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #312 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 893 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 51% district-wide (51 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Morgan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $169k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $141,949 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,800
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Victory Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,392 (+15%)	3mo	$173,000	$72	65
1994 Ladue Rd	0.25mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,364 (+14%)	9mo	$200,000	$85	49
120 Rebecca Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,227 (+7%)	23mo	$359,000	$161	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $12,358
• Equity at exit: $69,607

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $54,521
• Equity at exit: $102,583

Cash invested: $47,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62695

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,369/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,460

Max offer price $163,231

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $16	+0% $-32	+5% $-80	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-88	+0% $-32	+5% $24	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $53	-0.5pp $11	base $-32	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,225
• Closing costs: $5,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $168,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   remarks 677-char remark
3. 2026-06-04
   listed $168,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,369 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,101 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$733/yr (+$61/mo · 30.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,461
• − Property taxes: −$2,369
• − Insurance: −$844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − Depreciation: −$4,913
• Taxable loss: −$3,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$787
• After-tax cash flow: $402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville SD 117
• NCES district ID: 1720280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,909
• Composite: 18.66/100
• National rank: #8888
• State rank: #407 of 620 in IL

Livability — Woodson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #14546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodson, IL
• Population (ZIP): 531

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,874 people
• By 2030: 31,698 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 29,050 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 26,381 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 20,235 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 14,324 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.5) · D 33.1% · R 65.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -32.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.5 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+15.4 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Current HPI: 116.2791
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+87.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $168,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2015-11-23 Sold (MLS) $85,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-08 Listed $89,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,369 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.