244 SW 321st St

Horseshoe Beach, FL 32648

$169,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,340/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-33/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-33/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (20.7% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#755 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Dixie (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #36 of 73 in FL (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Old Town Elementary School (math 73% / reading 58%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 456 students, 80% FRL); Ruth Rains Middle School (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 431 students, 76% FRL); Dixie County High School (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 714 students, 70% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Dixie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dixie County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $169k implies a 535% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.