244 SW 321st St · Horseshoe Beach, FL 32648

$169,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1945 1.85 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Are you looking for that Old Florida charm with STUNNING mature oaks? Then this fixer upper might be perfect for you!! This home sits on 1 full acre with an adjoining 0.85 acre cleared lot included in current list price- or potentially could be sold separately. Across the street sits over 600+ timber acres. And with multiple hunting clubs nearby this could be your perfect hunting camp or a handyman's dream. The main house features 3 OVERSIZED bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and HUGE living room just waiting to be brought back to life. Imagine rocking on the large screened in porch, sipping sweet tea, and enjoying the beautiful sunsets. The property also has an older mobile home on the backsid

Key facts

• Old florida charm
• 1 full acre
• 600 timber acres

Tags

• OLD FLORIDA CHARM
• 1 FULL ACRE
• 0.85 ACRE CLEARED LOT
• 600 TIMBER ACRES
• LARGE SCREENED IN PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-33/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#755 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Dixie (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #36 of 73 in FL (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Old Town Elementary School (math 73% / reading 58%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 456 students, 80% FRL); Ruth Rains Middle School (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 431 students, 76% FRL); Dixie County High School (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 714 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Dixie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dixie County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $169k implies a 535% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,961 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $100,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
244 SW 321st St	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,000 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$50	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-24,817
• Equity at exit: $28,165

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-19,610
• Equity at exit: $19,760

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32648

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,252/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,343

Max offer price $168,515

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $45	+0% $-3	+5% $-51	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-56	+0% $-3	+5% $50	+10% $103
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $40	base $-3	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-14
   listed $169,000 Active
3. 2001-01-08
   soldstatus $26,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,252 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$150/yr (+$13/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,252
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$2,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$715
• After-tax cash flow: $682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dixie
• NCES district ID: 1200450
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,799
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3290
• State rank: #36 of 73 in FL

Livability — Horseshoe Beach

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #755
• US rank: #16592

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 250

Population outlook (Dixie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,122 people
• By 2030: 14,521 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 13,503 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 12,671 · -16.2%
• By 2075: 10,857 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 8,344 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dixie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.4) · D 14.5% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -45.0pp · 2024: -70.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.4 2020: R+66.0 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+45.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.61%
• Current HPI: 342.7599
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+535.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — DGLMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $169,000 DGLMLS
• 2001-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $26,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,252 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.