1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
606 sqft ·
Built 2003
· Condo
· Pending
· 145 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,979/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,543
Tax + insurance
−$998
HOA
−$668
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,046
Net cashflow
$-276/mo
Annual
$-3,309/yr
Cap rate
5.61%
Cash-on-cash
-2.44%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$135,800
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $485k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $485k).
It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $427k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $32k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($173k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-FKDSWN7ASWJ5G9
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29