4976 Curlew Dr

St. James City, FL 33956

$168,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 810 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,739/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$725
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-232/mo
• Annual: $-2,786/yr
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (24.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $127k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $168k implies a 888% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.