4976 Curlew Dr · St. James City, FL 33956

$168,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 810 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2024 7,187 sqft lot Est $134k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a great waterfront opportunity in St James city, you can own a new home with new A/C and brand new septic field in a community that offers quick access to the open water, community pool and club house, this property also offers a nice deck out back to relax on and enjoy the mornings and evenings.

Key facts

• Community pool
• New a/c
• Club house

Tags

• WATERFRONT OPPORTUNITY
• NEW A/C
• NEW SEPTIC FIELD
• QUICK ACCESS TO OPEN WATER
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUB HOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Association amenities: Boat dock, boat ramp, clubhouse; Community features: Boat facilities

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; 1 story; Entry level 1; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch; Fruit trees; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Great Room
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Living/Dining room; Tub with shower; Split bedrooms; Single-hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (24.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $168k implies a 888% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,989 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,650
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4873 Curlew Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	840 (+4%)	8mo	$180,000	$214	82
4868 Flamingo Dr	0.12mi	2/1.5	864 (+7%)	1mo	$95,000	$110	80
4940 Pinfish Ln	0.34mi	2/2.0	862 (+6%)	2mo	$142,500	$165	72
7261 Drum Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	768 (-5%)	14mo	$100,000	$130	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-41,710
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-54,142
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,740/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,033

Max offer price $126,989

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4944 Porky Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	831	$1,600	$1.93	24d	1	0.33mi
7150 Cobiac Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	826	$1,950	$2.36	24d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 308-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $168,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,740 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,740 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$2,740
• − Insurance: −$5,958
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$5,468
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,312
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+888.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $168,000 FORTMLS
• 1978-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,740 · +348.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.