126 Via Grande

Olivehurst, CA 95961

$170,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,894 sqft · Built 2002 · Land · Pending · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,842/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $1,242/mo
• Annual: $14,903/yr
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.31%
• DSCR: 2.39
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#679 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.8% in Olivehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.