126 Via Grande · Olivehurst, CA 95961

$170,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,894 sqft · Land · 119 Days on market

Built 2002 $90/sqft · 7% below area Est $182k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 126 Via Grande in Olivehurst, a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom triple-wide mobile home located on a corner lot in the all-ages Villa Seville Mobile Home Park. This well-laid-out home offers generous living space and thoughtful features throughout. Enjoy relaxing mornings and quiet evenings on the back porch. Inside, the family room features a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting space for gatherings. The open layout flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining areas, and all appliances are included, making this home move-in ready. An attached 2-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage. With four bedrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a h

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Community amenities
• Open layout

Tags

• BACK PORCH
• COZY FIREPLACE
• OPEN LAYOUT
• INCLUDED APPLIANCES
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.8% in Olivehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#679 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.31%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,500
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -6.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $51,487
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $146,429
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95961

• Home prices YoY: -28.2%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $490/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $1,242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1746 Barney Ave Olivehurst, CA	4.0	2.0	1915	$2,328	$1.22	13d	1	1.13mi
1726 Valley Meadows Dr Unit A2 Olivehurst, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,099	$1.69	13d	1	1.45mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$802/yr (+$67/mo · 163.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$490
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,728
• − Management: −$2,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $12,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,081
• After-tax cash flow: $11,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624090
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,598
• Composite: 18.18/100
• National rank: #8961
• State rank: #455 of 517 in CA

Livability — Olivehurst

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #20829

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olivehurst, CA
• County: Yuba County · 71,731 people
• City population: 33,999
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,999
• Household income: $89,561
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Yuba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,432 people
• By 2030: 75,358 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 74,643 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 72,937 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 66,368 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 54,524 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuba

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 35.7% · R 61.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.7pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.37%
• Current HPI: 222.3191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $490 · +55.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.