62 Larch Hill Rd

Lawrence, NY 11559

$2,998,000D

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,022 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,448/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,722
• Tax + insurance: −$2,707
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,924
• Net cashflow: $95/mo
• Annual: $1,144/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $839,440

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $3.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.34M (21.8% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $2.34M (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $321k of equity ($21k loan paydown + $300k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#981 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawrence Early Childhood Center At #4 School (145 students, 94% FRL); Lawrence Middle School At Broadway Campus (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 405 students, 79% FRL); Lawrence Senior High School (math 87% / reading 30%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 770 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 52% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $3.00M implies a 2121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $839k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$515k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.8% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.