62 Larch Hill Rd · Lawrence, NY 11559

$2,998,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,022 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1970 0.28 ac lot Est $2478k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Large Center Hall Colonial in a prime Lawrence location. Set on a very private, quiet street, this beautiful home offers the perfect combination of space, privacy, and convenience. Close to everything Lawrence has to offer, the home features a classic center hall layout with generous rooms, great flow, and endless potential. A rare opportunity to own a substantial home in one of Lawrence’s most desirable locations.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric service by PSEG; Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Private pool; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Granite countertops; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Granite counters; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Storage; Washer/dryer hookup; Finished full basement with storage; Partial attic; Total of 8 rooms; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $3.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.34M (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.34M (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.8% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#981 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawrence Early Childhood Center At #4 School (145 students, 94% FRL); Lawrence Middle School At Broadway Campus (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 405 students, 79% FRL); Lawrence Senior High School (math 87% / reading 30%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 770 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 52% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $321k of equity ($21k loan paydown + $300k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $839k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$515k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $3.00M implies a 2121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,344,796 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,477,552
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Broadway	0.29mi	5/3.0	4,302 (+7%)	4mo	$2,650,000	$616	65
190 Pond Xing	0.61mi	5/4.5	4,055 (+1%)	7mo	$2,535,000	$625	64
54 Barrett Rd	0.44mi	6/6.5 (+1)	3,981 (-1%)	10mo	$3,100,000	$779	56
8 Sterling Pl	0.48mi	6/3.5 (+1)	4,177 (+4%)	10mo	$2,100,000	$503	54
21 Bayberry Rd	0.39mi	6/3.5 (+1)	3,968 (-1%)	21mo	$1,625,000	$410	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $1,637,811
• Equity at exit: $2,700,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $4,816,211
• Equity at exit: $5,824,455

Cash invested: $839,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11559

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,722
• Tax from tax record: −$1,458 /mo · $17,490/yr
• Insurance: −$1,249
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,924
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $23,327

Max offer price $2,998,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $749,500
• Closing costs: $89,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Harborview W Lawrence, NY	4.0	4.5	3877	$35,000	$9.03	43d	1	0.51mi
486 Oxford Rd Cedarhurst, NY	6.0	3.5	3465	$8,000	$2.31	2d	1	1.17mi
803 Barberry Ln Woodmere, NY	6.0	3.5	4400	$8,600	$1.95	1d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $2,998,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $2,998,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $2,998,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $2,998,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $2,998,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $2,998,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $17,490 · $1,458/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $34,078 · $2,840/mo
• Expected delta: +$16,588/yr (+$1,382/mo · 94.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $281,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$167,935
• − Property taxes: −$17,490
• − Insurance: −$14,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,510
• − Management: −$22,510
• − Depreciation: −$87,215
• Taxable loss: −$51,274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,306
• After-tax cash flow: $13,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616830
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $91,008
• Composite: 42.14/100
• National rank: #3307
• State rank: #399 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lawrence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #981
• US rank: #19168

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrence, NY
• City population: 9,130
• Population (ZIP): 9,130

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 5% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 19% Slovak 3% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.24%
• Current HPI: 436.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2120.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $2,998,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-12 Listed $2,290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1976-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $17,490 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.