637 NE 10th St

Madras, OR 97741

$300,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Pending · 345 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,105/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-268/mo
• Annual: $-3,220/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.8% below list).
• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#180 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Jefferson County SD 509J (rural): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #55 of 58 in OR (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $250k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.9% in Madras — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.