637 NE 10th St · Madras, OR 97741

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 345 Days on market

Built 1980 0.58 ac lot Est $284k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2064 SF home with huge 2400 SF heated shop! This 3 bed, 2 bath home features a large family room with wet bar, a breakfast bar around the kitchen, living room, and a private deck perfectly situated on . 58 acres. Efficient LED lighting throughout. Heated with ductless heat pump, wood stove and pellet stove. Additional features include RV parking and hookups, fenced yard, extra parking for toys, hoist mount and office area in the 40x60 shop. The shop is heated with natural gas. Property has gravity-fed irrigation water available through Bel Air Irrigation District. Property is not a part of the Bel Air Subdivision. Riding lawn mower to be included in sale with full price offer. Call today for a private showing.

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 345 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.9% in Madras — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#180 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Jefferson County SD 509J (rural): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #55 of 58 in OR (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $250k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,523 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,160
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 NE Daisy St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	2mo	$280,000	$185	69
115 NE Jefferson St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-2%)	16mo	$270,000	$179	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $146,245
• Equity at exit: $270,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $443,994
• Equity at exit: $582,834

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97741

• Home prices YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,798/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $252,604

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
652 NE McCampbell St Madras, OR	3.0	2.0	1677	$2,550	$1.52	43d	1	0.35mi
335 SE 8th St Madras, OR	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,550	$1.32	43d	1	0.87mi
1392 SE Yarrow Ave Madras, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,995	$2.21	43d	12	1.45mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2025-11-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-21
   status Active
3. 2024-10-08
   historical
4. 2024-06-04
   status Active
5. 2023-12-18
   historical
6. 2023-11-17
   historical Active Bumpable
7. 2023-09-20
   status Pending
8. 2023-09-03
   historical Active Bumpable
9. 2023-08-11
   price $300,000
10. 2023-05-02
    price $369,000
11. 2023-05-01
    status Active
12. 2023-05-01
    status Pending
13. 2023-04-05
    listed $380,000 Active
14. 2019-09-09
    soldstatus $250,000
15. 2019-09-06
    soldstatus $250,000 Sold 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    Beautiful 2064 SF home with huge 2400 SF heated shop! This 3 bed, 2 bath home features a large family room with wet bar, a breakfast bar around the kitchen, living room, and a private deck perfectly situated on . 58 acres. Efficient LED lighting throughout. Heated with ductless heat pump, wood stove and pellet stove. Additional features include RV parking and hookups, fenced yard, extra parking for toys, hoist mount and office area in the 40x60 shop. The shop is heated with natural gas. Property has gravity-fed irrigation water available through Bel Air Irrigation District. Property is not a part of the Bel Air Subdivision. Riding lawn mower to be included in sale with full price offer. Call today for a private showing.

16. 2019-08-27
    status Pending 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    Beautiful 2064 SF home with huge 2400 SF heated shop! This 3 bed, 2 bath home features a large family room with wet bar, a breakfast bar around the kitchen, living room, and a private deck perfectly situated on . 58 acres. Efficient LED lighting throughout. Heated with ductless heat pump, wood stove and pellet stove. Additional features include RV parking and hookups, fenced yard, extra parking for toys, hoist mount and office area in the 40x60 shop. The shop is heated with natural gas. Property has gravity-fed irrigation water available through Bel Air Irrigation District. Property is not a part of the Bel Air Subdivision. Riding lawn mower to be included in sale with full price offer. Call today for a private showing.

17. 2019-08-05
    price $254,000 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    Beautiful 2064 SF home with huge 2400 SF heated shop! This 3 bed, 2 bath home features a large family room with wet bar, a breakfast bar around the kitchen, living room, and a private deck perfectly situated on . 58 acres. Efficient LED lighting throughout. Heated with ductless heat pump, wood stove and pellet stove. Additional features include RV parking and hookups, fenced yard, extra parking for toys, hoist mount and office area in the 40x60 shop. The shop is heated with natural gas. Property has gravity-fed irrigation water available through Bel Air Irrigation District. Property is not a part of the Bel Air Subdivision. Riding lawn mower to be included in sale with full price offer. Call today for a private showing.

18. 2019-05-29
    price $259,000 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    Beautiful 2064 SF home with huge 2400 SF heated shop! This 3 bed, 2 bath home features a large family room with wet bar, a breakfast bar around the kitchen, living room, and a private deck perfectly situated on . 58 acres. Efficient LED lighting throughout. Heated with ductless heat pump, wood stove and pellet stove. Additional features include RV parking and hookups, fenced yard, extra parking for toys, hoist mount and office area in the 40x60 shop. The shop is heated with natural gas. Property has gravity-fed irrigation water available through Bel Air Irrigation District. Property is not a part of the Bel Air Subdivision. Riding lawn mower to be included in sale with full price offer. Call today for a private showing.

19. 2019-05-01
    listed $265,000 Active 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    Beautiful 2064 SF home with huge 2400 SF heated shop! This 3 bed, 2 bath home features a large family room with wet bar, a breakfast bar around the kitchen, living room, and a private deck perfectly situated on . 58 acres. Efficient LED lighting throughout. Heated with ductless heat pump, wood stove and pellet stove. Additional features include RV parking and hookups, fenced yard, extra parking for toys, hoist mount and office area in the 40x60 shop. The shop is heated with natural gas. Property has gravity-fed irrigation water available through Bel Air Irrigation District. Property is not a part of the Bel Air Subdivision. Riding lawn mower to be included in sale with full price offer. Call today for a private showing.

20. 2017-06-23
    soldstatus $165,000 Sold 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Well planned manufactured home designed for comfortable living. This triple wide features a nice living room in addition to a large family room with wet bar. Two covered decks, and a fended yard also allow for comfortable outside enjoyment. Big 40 x 60 shop is a real bonus for a mechanic or handyman. Check out this opportunity. Gravity fed irrigation water available through Bel-Air irrigation district.

21. 2017-06-23
    soldstatus $165,000

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Well planned manufactured home designed for comfortable living. This triple wide features a nice living room in addition to a large family room with wet bar. Two covered decks, and a fended yard also allow for comfortable outside enjoyment. Big 40 x 60 shop is a real bonus for a mechanic or handyman. Check out this opportunity. Gravity fed irrigation water available through Bel-Air irrigation district.

22. 2017-05-27
    status Pending 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Well planned manufactured home designed for comfortable living. This triple wide features a nice living room in addition to a large family room with wet bar. Two covered decks, and a fended yard also allow for comfortable outside enjoyment. Big 40 x 60 shop is a real bonus for a mechanic or handyman. Check out this opportunity. Gravity fed irrigation water available through Bel-Air irrigation district.

23. 2017-05-17
    listed $179,000 Active 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Well planned manufactured home designed for comfortable living. This triple wide features a nice living room in addition to a large family room with wet bar. Two covered decks, and a fended yard also allow for comfortable outside enjoyment. Big 40 x 60 shop is a real bonus for a mechanic or handyman. Check out this opportunity. Gravity fed irrigation water available through Bel-Air irrigation district.

24. 2016-03-30
    historical
25. 2015-06-04
    price $159,000
26. 2015-04-25
    listed $162,400 Active
27. 2007-10-01
    historical
28. 2007-04-06
    listed $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,798 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$112/yr (+$9/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,798
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,610
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,066
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County SD 509J
• NCES district ID: 4106740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,663
• Composite: 20.9/100
• National rank: #8488
• State rank: #55 of 58 in OR

Livability — Madras

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #11012

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madras, OR
• County: Jefferson County · 13,663 people
• City population: 13,663
• Metro: The Dalles, OR
• Population (ZIP): 13,663
• Household income: $70,983
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 466.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,040 people
• By 2030: 24,631 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 25,499 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 25,801 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 25,682 · +6.8%
• By 2100: 22,222 · -7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 19% Native American 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 33.6% · R 63.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.68%
• Current HPI: 590.9612
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Dalles, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+62.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Pending — WVMLS
• 2025-10-21 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2024-10-08 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2024-06-04 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2023-12-18 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2023-11-17 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2023-09-20 Pending — WVMLS
• 2023-09-03 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $300,000 WVMLS
• 2023-05-02 Price Changed $369,000 WVMLS
• 2023-05-01 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2023-05-01 Pending — WVMLS
• 2023-04-05 Listed $380,000 WVMLS
• 2019-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-06 Sold (MLS) $250,000 MLSCO
• 2019-08-27 Pending — MLSCO
• 2019-08-05 Price Changed $254,000 MLSCO
• 2019-05-29 Price Changed $259,000 MLSCO
• 2019-05-01 Listed $265,000 MLSCO
• 2017-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-23 Sold (MLS) $165,000 MLSCO
• 2017-05-27 Pending — MLSCO
• 2017-05-17 Listed $179,000 MLSCO
• 2016-03-30 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2015-06-04 Price Changed $159,000 MLSCO
• 2015-04-25 Listed $162,400 MLSCO
• 2007-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2007-04-06 Listed $185,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,798 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.