209 E Sheldon Ave

Thrall, TX 76578

$280,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 446 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,463/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-541/mo
• Annual: $-6,494/yr
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.28%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-541 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (34.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (47.8% below list).
• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (47.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#492 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Thrall ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #89 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Thrall El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 322 students, 46% FRL); Thrall Middle (math 63% / reading 57%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 243 students, 32% FRL); Thrall H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 254 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.