209 E Sheldon Ave · Thrall, TX 76578

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 445 Days on market

Built 2000 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime corner lot across from Thrall High School, offering excellent visibility and endless possibilities! This 1,920 sq. ft. home sits on a well-positioned lot currently zoned for single-family use, with potential for other opportunities. Whether you’re looking for a spacious residence or an investment property in a high-traffic area, this location provides a unique chance to maximize value. Don’t miss out on this exceptional opportunity in the heart of Thrall!

Key facts

• High-traffic area
• Excellent visibility
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ZONED FOR SINGLE-FAMILY USE
• HIGH-TRAFFIC AREA
• EXCELLENT VISIBILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (32.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#492 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Thrall ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #89 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Thrall El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 322 students, 46% FRL); Thrall Middle (math 63% / reading 57%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 243 students, 32% FRL); Thrall H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 254 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 445 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 445 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $15,984
• Equity at exit: $120,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $80,766
• Equity at exit: $181,434

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76578

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,343/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,148

Max offer price $245,387

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-117	+0% $-196	+5% $-275	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-346	-5% $-271	+0% $-196	+5% $-121	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-125	base $-196	+0.5pp $-268	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Lydia Ln Thrall, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,900	$1.40	0d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 445 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 439 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 437 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 431 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 425 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 424 DOM
15. 2025-04-02
    listed $280,000 Active 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Prime corner lot across from Thrall High School, offering excellent visibility and endless possibilities! This 1,920 sq. ft. home sits on a well-positioned lot currently zoned for single-family use, with potential for other opportunities. Whether you’re looking for a spacious residence or an investment property in a high-traffic area, this location provides a unique chance to maximize value. Don’t miss out on this exceptional opportunity in the heart of Thrall!

16. 2010-03-03
    soldstatus
17. 2010-03-03
    soldstatus
18. 2000-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,343 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,781/yr (+$315/mo · 281.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,343
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$7,421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,781
• After-tax cash flow: $-570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thrall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842660
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,801
• Composite: 48.64/100
• National rank: #2107
• State rank: #89 of 826 in TX

Livability — Thrall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #492
• US rank: #9735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thrall, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,561

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Native American 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Serbian 5% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Current HPI: 227.9035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-02 Listed $280,000 Unlock MLS
• 2010-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2015): $1,343 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.