2016 Oak St

St. Cloud, FL 34769

$185,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,656/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $217/mo
• Annual: $2,601/yr
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.02%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: St. Cloud Elementary School (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 848 students, 55% FRL); St. Cloud Middle School (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,229 students, 60% FRL); St. Cloud High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,264 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 260 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $185k implies a 374% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.