2016 Oak St · St. Cloud, FL 34769

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1990 5,532 sqft lot Est $206k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is Your New Home! The property offers functional living space, outdoor flexibility, and convenient access to shops & restaurants. The extended driveway provides practical parking and everyday convenience. Inside, the home has been freshly painted! 2 Bedrooms + Bonus Room is ideal for 3rd Bedroom or Home Office! The split-bedroom floor plan provides privacy and versatility. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet, and a remodeled en-suite bathroom.  The backyard provides open space for outdoor enjoyment, pets, gardening, or future customization and and two detached sheds offering additional storage.  Come see this Affordable Home Today!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Freshly painted
• Practical parking

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPS
• PRACTICAL PARKING
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• REMODELED EN-SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (Manufactured Home); Lot size approx. 0.13 acre (Fl. friendly/native landscaping); Number of septic systems: 1; Corner lot parcel with universal property ID US-12097-N-112630419000010410-R-N
• HOA & community: No association indicated; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway (asphalt)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces south; Homestead
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Near public transit; Paved access; Lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Mini-split cooling; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom floor plan; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 260 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $185k implies a 374% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,972 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.09%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,080
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1706 Charleston Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	920 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$152	88
2240 Darby Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	936 (+2%)	7mo	$220,000	$235	80
1821 Jersey Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0	828 (-10%)	6mo	$85,000	$103	70
1709 Jersey Ave	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+15%)	12mo	$237,000	$224	60
2054 Bramblewood Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+15%)	13mo	$242,000	$229	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,793
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,482
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34769

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $272	+0% $220	+5% $167	+10% $115
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $154	+0% $220	+5% $285	+10% $351
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $267	base $220	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2400 16th St Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,799	$1.73	19d	1	0.25mi
1400 Dakota Ave Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	690	$1,650	$2.39	25d	1	0.27mi
1871 Cactus Ct Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	19d	1	0.30mi
1818 Minnesota Ave Unit B St Cloud, FL	1.0	1.5	700	$1,600	$2.29	25d	1	0.35mi
1423 Montana Ave Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,895	$1.78	13d	1	0.49mi
1423 Montana Ave Unit 1423 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,895	$1.78	16d	1	0.49mi
1404 Montana Ave Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	0.54mi
1031 Columbia Ave Apt K St Cloud, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$950	$1.46	21d	1	0.71mi
607 Alabama Ave Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	2.0	952	$2,000	$2.10	16d	1	0.79mi
608 Missouri Ave Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	956	$1,395	$1.46	4d	1	0.80mi
517 Jersey Ave Saint Cloud, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,250	$2.08	9d	1	0.83mi
712 Michigan Ct #3 Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	4d	1	0.88mi
714 Michigan Ct #4 Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,350	$1.72	17d	1	0.88mi
720 Michigan Ct #2 Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,199	$1.53	25d	1	0.89mi
720 Michigan Ct #4 Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,295	$1.65	25d	1	0.89mi
821 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	1.0	1048	$1,695	$1.62	9d	1	0.90mi
616 Massachusetts Ave Unit A St Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$999	$1.11	25d	1	0.90mi
616 Massachusetts Ave Unit A St Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$999	$1.11	23d	1	0.90mi
706 New York Ave Saint Cloud, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,425	$1.90	25d	1	0.90mi
1007 Florida Ave Saint Cloud, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	17d	2	0.90mi
715 Michigan Ct #3 Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,300	$1.66	25d	1	0.91mi
521 Montana Ave Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,495	$1.48	3d	1	0.92mi
521 Montana Ave Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,495	$1.48	25d	1	0.92mi
736 Michigan Ct #4 Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,300	$1.66	13d	1	0.94mi
3010 Camber Dr Saint Cloud, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,971	$1.96	3d	18	0.95mi
731 Michigan Ct St Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,350	$1.72	9d	1	0.97mi
698 Michigan Ct #1 Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,225	$1.56	23d	1	0.97mi
733 Michigan Ct St Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,295	$1.65	25d	1	0.98mi
437 Columbia Ave St Cloud, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,800	$1.63	25d	1	1.01mi
3100 Soldier City Way St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,875	$1.73	4d	6	1.03mi
3065 Soldier City Way Unit 202 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,800	$1.60	21d	1	1.06mi
3075 Soldier City Way Unit 202 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,800	$1.60	21d	1	1.07mi
3075 Soldier City Way Unit 102 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,800	$1.72	25d	1	1.07mi
3075 Soldier City Way Unit 103 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,850	$1.77	25d	1	1.07mi
3075 Soldier City Way Unit 101 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,850	$1.77	5d	1	1.07mi
3085 Soldier City Way Unit 202 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,800	$1.60	25d	1	1.08mi
3085 Soldier City Way Unit 203 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,850	$1.77	25d	1	1.08mi
3528 Bay Ct Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,495	$1.69	25d	1	1.10mi
212 Tennessee Ave Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	1009	$1,700	$1.68	25d	1	1.15mi
201 Georgia Ave Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	2.0	915	$1,500	$1.64	9d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 655-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,003/yr (+$84/mo · 188.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$472
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$113
• After-tax cash flow: $2,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Cloud, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,204
• Household income: $67,148
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1138.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 21% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 31% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.08%
• Current HPI: 324.6715
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.35%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+541.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-04 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-10 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-30 Listed $99,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-13 Listed $99,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-06 Listed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-25 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-11 Listed $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1993-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $532 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.