1845 Acorn Ridge Trl

Bradfordville, FL 32312

$300,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,847 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 264 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,670/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$540
• HOA: −$11
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-181/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-181/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Killearn Lakes Elementary School (math 74% / reading 78%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 777 students, 17% FRL); Deerlake Middle School (math 81% / reading 73%, grade A, #28 of 571 statewide, top 5%, 894 students, 16% FRL); Lawton Chiles High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,900 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 15% FRL vs 45% district-wide (30 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Leon average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Bradfordville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.