1284 Lee Road 281

Antioch, GA 36874

$265,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,122/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $21/mo
• Annual: $248/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($248/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (19.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $212k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee County (rural): math 23% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #40 of 129 in AL (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Smiths Station Elementary School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 815 students, 66% FRL); Sanford Middle School (math 27% / reading 46%, grade F, #76 of 257 statewide, top 31%, 545 students, 74% FRL); Beulah High School (math 9% / reading 35%, grade F, #142 of 305 statewide, top 51%, 533 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 48% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 1,858 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (113 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +54% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $226k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.3% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.