1284 Lee Road 281 · Antioch, GA 36874

$265,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2013 0.94 ac lot Est $355k · 25% under · waterfront

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Open Floor Plan on Approx 1 Acre wooded lot in Lee Cty Smiths Station School, Hardwood Floors, Wood Burning Fireplace in Greatroom with Double Pop up Ceiling, Master Suite with Walk-in Closet and Sep. Jetted Tub/Shower. Covered Front and Rear Patio, Property goes beyond the fenced area into the woods. Painting completed.

Key facts

• 0.94 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2013

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($248/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.3% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee County (rural): math 23% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #40 of 129 in AL (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Smiths Station Elementary School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 815 students, 66% FRL); Sanford Middle School (math 27% / reading 46%, grade F, #76 of 257 statewide, top 31%, 545 students, 74% FRL); Beulah High School (math 9% / reading 35%, grade F, #142 of 305 statewide, top 51%, 533 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 48% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1,858 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (113 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +54% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $226k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,182 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,230
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1284 Lee Road 281	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,521 (0%)	1mo	$272,000	$179	95
141 Lee Road 801	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,454 (-4%)	2mo	$325,000	$224	72
275 Lee Road 126	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-6%)	1mo	$246,000	$173	69
25 Lee Road 282	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,445 (-5%)	7mo	$253,900	$176	49
114 Lee Road 2089	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (-8%)	18mo	$194,500	$139	47
271 Lee rd 2163	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,689 (+11%)	14mo	$270,000	$160	41
29 Lee Road 2087	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+14%)	20mo	$280,000	$162	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-41,700
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-34,925
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36874

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,068/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $96	+0% $21	+5% $-54	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-63	+0% $21	+5% $104	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $88	base $21	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $265,000 Active
3. 2026-04-20
   historical $265,000
4. 2022-09-01
   soldstatus $226,000 Closed 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Great Open Floor Plan on Approx 1 Acre wooded lot in Lee Cty Smiths Station School, Hardwood Floors, Wood Burning Fireplace in Greatroom with Double Pop up Ceiling, Master Suite with Walk-in Closet and Sep. Jetted Tub/Shower. Covered Front and Rear Patio, Property goes beyond the fenced area into the woods. Painting completed.

5. 2022-07-27
   status Pending 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Great Open Floor Plan on Approx 1 Acre wooded lot in Lee Cty Smiths Station School, Hardwood Floors, Wood Burning Fireplace in Greatroom with Double Pop up Ceiling, Master Suite with Walk-in Closet and Sep. Jetted Tub/Shower. Covered Front and Rear Patio, Property goes beyond the fenced area into the woods. Painting completed.

6. 2022-07-24
   listed $215,000 Active 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Great Open Floor Plan on Approx 1 Acre wooded lot in Lee Cty Smiths Station School, Hardwood Floors, Wood Burning Fireplace in Greatroom with Double Pop up Ceiling, Master Suite with Walk-in Closet and Sep. Jetted Tub/Shower. Covered Front and Rear Patio, Property goes beyond the fenced area into the woods. Painting completed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,068 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,438 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,370/yr (+$114/mo · 128.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,068
• − Insurance: −$2,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,037
• − Management: −$2,037
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,045
• After-tax cash flow: $1,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County
• NCES district ID: 0102070
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,786
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #6355
• State rank: #40 of 129 in AL

Livability — Antioch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,329

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,440 people
• By 2030: 217,417 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 259,467 · +32.1%
• By 2050: 301,557 · +53.5%
• By 2075: 402,186 · +104.7%
• By 2100: 474,503 · +141.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.5% · R 63.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+19.9 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.13%
• Current HPI: 218.2835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+23.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — LCMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $265,000 LCMLS
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $265,000 LCMLS
• 2022-09-01 Sold (MLS) $226,000 LCMLS
• 2022-07-27 Pending — LCMLS
• 2022-07-24 Listed $215,000 LCMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,068 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.