821 Jefferson Ave #5

Miami Beach, FL 33139

$250,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 670 sqft · Built 1969 · Condo · Active · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,739/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$885
• HOA: −$716
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$785
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $500/yr
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.03%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in FL, #1,672 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $250k implies a 614% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.5% in Miami Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,739/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 4052% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?