821 Jefferson Ave #5 · Miami Beach, FL 33139

$250,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 670 sqft · Condo public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1969 $716/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

I the Heart of South Beach. Income generating 1/1 in the best location. Only blocks from the Beach, Restaurants, Shopping etc. Already equipped with Impact Windows, this unit can be transformed into your perfect Pied a Terre in an intimate setting. Tenant occupied on a month to month bases. Ample residential street parking.

Key facts

• Income generating
• Impact windows
• $716 HOA

Tags

• INCOME GENERATING
• IMPACT WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed (dogs OK)
• HOA & community: Quarterly association fee; Association fee covers management, amenities, common areas, hot water, insurance, legal/accounting, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, reserve fund, roof, sewer, and trash; Community with 8 units

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Complex fenced
• Utilities: Central heating and cooling
• Home design: 2-story property; Entry on level 1; Has attached property
• Construction: Block construction; Effective year built
• Exterior features: Fruit trees; Complex fenced

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor entry; Bedroom on main level; Tile flooring; Exterior lighting; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.5% in Miami Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in FL, #1,672 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,739/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 4052% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $250k implies a 614% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.03%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.19% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,432
• Equity at exit: $46,421

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-62,486
• Equity at exit: $37,657

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33139

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,739 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,253/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$716
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$785
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,686

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1602 Meridian Ave Miami Beach, FL	4.0	1.0–3.0	917	$6,932	$7.56	14d	1	0.71mi
2201 Collins Ave Miami Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$22,000	$19.62	24d	2	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $716 · $8,592/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-01-15
   price $250,000
2. 2025-12-18
   listed $265,000 Active
3. 2025-07-09
   historical
4. 2025-06-30
   status Active
5. 2025-03-31
   status Active
6. 2025-01-01
   status Active
7. 2024-10-02
   price $245,000
8. 2024-09-16
   listed $255,000 Active
9. 2024-01-16
   historical
10. 2024-01-14
    price $269,000
11. 2023-11-30
    listed $279,900 Active
12. 2017-01-12
    historical
13. 2016-06-29
    price $265,000
14. 2016-04-11
    price $275,000
15. 2016-02-09
    price $285,000
16. 2016-01-16
    listed $355,000 Active
17. 1993-07-16
    soldstatus $35,000
18. 1988-04-01
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,253 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,253 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 33 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,253
• − Insurance: −$6,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,589
• − Management: −$3,589
• − HOA: −$8,592
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $1,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami Beach

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #1672

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami Beach, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 90,533
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,753
• Household income: $69,793
• Rent vs Own: 62.8% rent · 37.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 4052.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 40% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 15% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 56% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.19%
• Current HPI: 277.9321
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+987.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $250,000 MARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $265,000 MARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $245,000 MARMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listed $255,000 MARMLS
• 2024-01-16 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2024-01-14 Price Changed $269,000 MARMLS
• 2023-11-30 Listed $279,900 MARMLS
• 2017-01-12 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2016-06-29 Price Changed $265,000 MARMLS
• 2016-04-11 Price Changed $275,000 MARMLS
• 2016-02-09 Price Changed $285,000 MARMLS
• 2016-01-16 Listed $355,000 MARMLS
• 1993-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1988-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,253 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.