66 Perrys Ln

Manahawkin, NJ 08050

$309,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 172 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax + insurance: −$516
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $31/mo
• Annual: $370/yr
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $86,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($370/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#336 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southern Regional School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #251 of 472 in NJ (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Acres Elementary School (665 students, 21% FRL); Southern Regional Middle School (math 21% / reading 53%, grade F, #221 of 431 statewide, top 52%, 905 students, 22% FRL); Southern Regional High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #217 of 399 statewide, top 57%, 1,845 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $310k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Manahawkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.