364 Trailfork Rd Lot 94

Ruckersville, VA 22923

$387,500D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,032
• Tax + insurance: −$646
• HOA: −$141
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $-295/mo
• Annual: $-3,542/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $108,500

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $388k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $319k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.