364 Trailfork Rd Lot 94 · Ruckersville, VA 22923

$387,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,178 sqft lot $220/sqft · 6% below area Est $412k · 6% under $141/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Nichols at Essence at Creekside! This is a rare opportunity at a PRIVATE lot in a culdesac within our community. Estimated for completion August 2026, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home combines style, space, and smart design for modern living. Featuring an oversized backyard with a rear patio, this home is perfect for outdoor entertaining, relaxing evenings, or simply enjoying the mountain views. Inside, the open-concept main level offers a bright family room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, making gatherings easy and enjoyable. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a spa-like bath, while three additional bedrooms and a full bath provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing household. Low-maintenance exteriors and builder warranties ensure peace of mind. At Creekside, enjoy on-site walking trails, a children’s playground, and an outdoor gazebo with fire pits, plus access to resort style amenities such as two pools, a clubhouse with fitness center, and pickleball courts. Conveniently located just off Route 29, this community is minutes from Charlottesville, UVA, shopping, and dining. The price of this home includes all options and finishes. Photos of a similar home.

Key facts

• Private lot
• Rear patio
• Oversized backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• CULDESAC
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• REAR PATIO
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $388k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $319,462 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $412,245
• List price: $387,500
• Delta: -6.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 Trailfork Rd	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,760 (0%)	1mo	$407,490	$232	94
181 Trailfork Rd	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,760 (0%)	3mo	$402,990	$229	92
375 White Sands Blvd	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,723 (-2%)	3mo	$486,755	$283	85
260 Trailfork Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-2%)	2mo	$459,990	$267	83
157 Trailfork Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-2%)	4mo	$389,990	$226	81
171 Arches Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+8%)	4mo	$430,000	$226	77
85 Magnolia Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,864 (+6%)	1mo	$400,000	$215	63
75 Lumber Ln	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,692 (-4%)	2mo	$353,000	$209	55
87 Everglades Rd	0.67mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+8%)	4mo	$438,055	$230	52
47 Everglades Rd	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+8%)	2mo	$421,480	$221	51
27 Everglades Rd	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+8%)	2mo	$416,980	$219	51
82 Everglades Rd	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+8%)	4mo	$451,815	$237	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-81,457
• Equity at exit: $57,778

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-94,591
• Equity at exit: $33,504

Cash invested: $108,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,032
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$484 /mo · $5,812/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$141
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,568

Max offer price $344,788

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,875
• Closing costs: $11,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	13d	1	0.71mi
92 Everglades RD Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,795	$1.47	13d	1	0.72mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	13d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $141 · $1,692/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

   Welcome to The Nichols at Essence at Creekside! This is a rare opportunity at a PRIVATE lot in a culdesac within our community. Estimated for completion August 2026, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home combines style, space, and smart design for modern living. Featuring an oversized backyard with a rear patio, this home is perfect for outdoor entertaining, relaxing evenings, or simply enjoying the mountain views. Inside, the open-concept main level offers a bright family room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, making gatherings easy and enjoyable. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a spa-like bath, while three additional bedrooms and a full bath provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing household. Low-maintenance exteriors and builder warranties ensure peace of mind. At Creekside, enjoy on-site walking trails, a children’s playground, and an outdoor gazebo with fire pits, plus access to resort style amenities such as two pools, a clubhouse with fitness center, and pickleball courts. Conveniently located just off Route 29, this community is minutes from Charlottesville, UVA, shopping, and dining. The price of this home includes all options and finishes. Photos of a similar home.

2. 2026-05-14
   price $387,500 1245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

   Welcome to The Nichols at Essence at Creekside! This is a rare opportunity at a PRIVATE lot in a culdesac within our community. Estimated for completion August 2026, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home combines style, space, and smart design for modern living. Featuring an oversized backyard with a rear patio, this home is perfect for outdoor entertaining, relaxing evenings, or simply enjoying the mountain views. Inside, the open-concept main level offers a bright family room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, making gatherings easy and enjoyable. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a spa-like bath, while three additional bedrooms and a full bath provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing household. Low-maintenance exteriors and builder warranties ensure peace of mind. At Creekside, enjoy on-site walking trails, a children’s playground, and an outdoor gazebo with fire pits, plus access to resort style amenities such as two pools, a clubhouse with fitness center, and pickleball courts. Conveniently located just off Route 29, this community is minutes from Charlottesville, UVA, shopping, and dining. The price of this home includes all options and finishes. Photos of a similar home.

3. 2026-04-30
   price $389,589 1245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

   Welcome to The Nichols at Essence at Creekside! This is a rare opportunity at a PRIVATE lot in a culdesac within our community. Estimated for completion August 2026, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home combines style, space, and smart design for modern living. Featuring an oversized backyard with a rear patio, this home is perfect for outdoor entertaining, relaxing evenings, or simply enjoying the mountain views. Inside, the open-concept main level offers a bright family room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, making gatherings easy and enjoyable. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a spa-like bath, while three additional bedrooms and a full bath provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing household. Low-maintenance exteriors and builder warranties ensure peace of mind. At Creekside, enjoy on-site walking trails, a children’s playground, and an outdoor gazebo with fire pits, plus access to resort style amenities such as two pools, a clubhouse with fitness center, and pickleball courts. Conveniently located just off Route 29, this community is minutes from Charlottesville, UVA, shopping, and dining. The price of this home includes all options and finishes. Photos of a similar home.

4. 2026-02-20
   listed $399,589 Active 1245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

   Welcome to The Nichols at Essence at Creekside! This is a rare opportunity at a PRIVATE lot in a culdesac within our community. Estimated for completion August 2026, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home combines style, space, and smart design for modern living. Featuring an oversized backyard with a rear patio, this home is perfect for outdoor entertaining, relaxing evenings, or simply enjoying the mountain views. Inside, the open-concept main level offers a bright family room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, making gatherings easy and enjoyable. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a spa-like bath, while three additional bedrooms and a full bath provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing household. Low-maintenance exteriors and builder warranties ensure peace of mind. At Creekside, enjoy on-site walking trails, a children’s playground, and an outdoor gazebo with fire pits, plus access to resort style amenities such as two pools, a clubhouse with fitness center, and pickleball courts. Conveniently located just off Route 29, this community is minutes from Charlottesville, UVA, shopping, and dining. The price of this home includes all options and finishes. Photos of a similar home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,706
• − Property taxes: −$5,812
• − Insurance: −$1,938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,067
• − Management: −$3,067
• − HOA: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$11,273
• Taxable loss: −$10,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,453
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This modern, move-in-ready home with a private lot and community amenities is in excellent condition and ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ruckersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #11455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $387,500 CAAR
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $389,589 CAAR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $399,589 CAAR