4308 Twin Oaks Dr

Cottonwood Shores, TX 78657

$300,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,849 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$700
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-450/mo
• Annual: $-5,403/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.43%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#385 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.