4308 Twin Oaks Dr · Cottonwood Shores, TX 78657

$300,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,849 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2019 10,000 sqft lot $162/sqft · 12% below area Est $339k · 12% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home welcomes you with a spacious front porch, perfect for relaxing evenings while enjoying the peaceful neighborhood, watching deer pass by, and seeing kids play along the quiet, low-traffic street. Inside, the primary suite is conveniently located downstairs to the left, offering both privacy and comfort. The main living area sits to the right as you enter, creating an open and inviting space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The dining area connects seamlessly between the living room and the kitchen, which is located at the back of the home. The kitchen features granite countertops, a beautiful island, and ample counter space, making it both functional and stylish. The nearby laundry area provides added convenience, and a half bath downstairs is perfectly positioned for guests or for easy access when coming in from the backyard. Upstairs, you’ll find three spacious bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a walk-in attic space that offers excellent storage. The upstairs layout has been thoughtfully designed to maximize space and functionality. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room for pets to roam, children to play, and gatherings or BBQs with family and friends. The fully fenced yard provides added safety and peace of mind, making outdoor living even more enjoyable. Located on a quiet street with minimal traffic, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, space, and convenience, while being just minutes from nearby lakes, restaurants, and shopping.

Key facts

• Beautiful island
• Dining area
• Open living area

Tags

• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• PRIMARY SUITE DOWNSTAIRS
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• DINING AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BEAUTIFUL ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#385 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,464 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.43%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,988
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -11.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Kings Way	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,835 (-1%)	3mo	$545,000	$297	70
650 Birch Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,699 (-8%)	8mo	$309,000	$182	60
613 Driftwood Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0	1,868 (+1%)	17mo	$325,000	$174	57
757 Cypress Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,786 (-3%)	1mo	$220,000	$123	56
505 Royal Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5	1,883 (+2%)	13mo	$427,000	$227	54
204 Kings Way	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (+5%)	17mo	$499,950	$258	51
651 Birch Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-12%)	16mo	$334,000	$204	46
716 Pine Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (-9%)	23mo	$364,000	$216	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-23,709
• Equity at exit: $101,562

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,579
• Equity at exit: $134,311

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1236
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,307 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$575 /mo · $6,896/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,877

Max offer price $220,464

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-280	-5% $-365	+0% $-450	+5% $-535	+10% $-620
Rent	-10% $-633	-5% $-541	+0% $-450	+5% $-359	+10% $-268
Rate	-1.0pp $-299	-0.5pp $-374	base $-450	+0.5pp $-528	+1.0pp $-607

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
851 Aspen Ln Cottonwood Shores, TX	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,692	$1.18	45d	1	0.86mi
851 Aspen Ln Cottonwood Shores, TX	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,566	$1.09	25d	1	0.86mi
415 Horseshoe Bay North Blvd Unit 1 Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	4.5	2375	$3,500	$1.47	45d	1	1.28mi
201 36th St Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,300	$1.39	22d	1	1.42mi
2203 25th St Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,525	$0.91	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $300,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $300,000 1521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1521 chars)

    This charming home welcomes you with a spacious front porch, perfect for relaxing evenings while enjoying the peaceful neighborhood, watching deer pass by, and seeing kids play along the quiet, low-traffic street. Inside, the primary suite is conveniently located downstairs to the left, offering both privacy and comfort. The main living area sits to the right as you enter, creating an open and inviting space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The dining area connects seamlessly between the living room and the kitchen, which is located at the back of the home. The kitchen features granite countertops, a beautiful island, and ample counter space, making it both functional and stylish. The nearby laundry area provides added convenience, and a half bath downstairs is perfectly positioned for guests or for easy access when coming in from the backyard. Upstairs, you’ll find three spacious bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a walk-in attic space that offers excellent storage. The upstairs layout has been thoughtfully designed to maximize space and functionality. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room for pets to roam, children to play, and gatherings or BBQs with family and friends. The fully fenced yard provides added safety and peace of mind, making outdoor living even more enjoyable. Located on a quiet street with minimal traffic, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, space, and convenience, while being just minutes from nearby lakes, restaurants, and shopping.

16. 2026-04-29
    price $315,000 1521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1521 chars)

    This charming home welcomes you with a spacious front porch, perfect for relaxing evenings while enjoying the peaceful neighborhood, watching deer pass by, and seeing kids play along the quiet, low-traffic street. Inside, the primary suite is conveniently located downstairs to the left, offering both privacy and comfort. The main living area sits to the right as you enter, creating an open and inviting space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The dining area connects seamlessly between the living room and the kitchen, which is located at the back of the home. The kitchen features granite countertops, a beautiful island, and ample counter space, making it both functional and stylish. The nearby laundry area provides added convenience, and a half bath downstairs is perfectly positioned for guests or for easy access when coming in from the backyard. Upstairs, you’ll find three spacious bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a walk-in attic space that offers excellent storage. The upstairs layout has been thoughtfully designed to maximize space and functionality. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room for pets to roam, children to play, and gatherings or BBQs with family and friends. The fully fenced yard provides added safety and peace of mind, making outdoor living even more enjoyable. Located on a quiet street with minimal traffic, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, space, and convenience, while being just minutes from nearby lakes, restaurants, and shopping.

17. 2026-02-20
    listed $325,000 Active 1521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1521 chars)

    This charming home welcomes you with a spacious front porch, perfect for relaxing evenings while enjoying the peaceful neighborhood, watching deer pass by, and seeing kids play along the quiet, low-traffic street. Inside, the primary suite is conveniently located downstairs to the left, offering both privacy and comfort. The main living area sits to the right as you enter, creating an open and inviting space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The dining area connects seamlessly between the living room and the kitchen, which is located at the back of the home. The kitchen features granite countertops, a beautiful island, and ample counter space, making it both functional and stylish. The nearby laundry area provides added convenience, and a half bath downstairs is perfectly positioned for guests or for easy access when coming in from the backyard. Upstairs, you’ll find three spacious bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a walk-in attic space that offers excellent storage. The upstairs layout has been thoughtfully designed to maximize space and functionality. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room for pets to roam, children to play, and gatherings or BBQs with family and friends. The fully fenced yard provides added safety and peace of mind, making outdoor living even more enjoyable. Located on a quiet street with minimal traffic, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, space, and convenience, while being just minutes from nearby lakes, restaurants, and shopping.

18. 2019-08-22
    soldstatus
19. 2017-06-27
    soldstatus
20. 2013-10-29
    soldstatus
21. 2005-12-13
    soldstatus
22. 2005-12-13
    soldstatus
23. 2005-12-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,896 · $575/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,896 · $575/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$6,896
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,215
• − Management: −$2,215
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$10,672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,561
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cottonwood Shores

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #8036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood Shores, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $300,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $315,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-20 Listed $325,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+41.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,896 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.