3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,605 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 52 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,018/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,966
Tax + insurance
−$1,051
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$424
Net cashflow
$-1,423/mo
Annual
$-17,081/yr
Cap rate
3.10%
Cash-on-cash
-11.40%
DSCR
0.49
1% rule
0.54%
Cash to close
$104,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $375k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (54.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (46.2% below list).
It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $169k (54.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#324 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
Hendry (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #65 of 73 in FL (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: 942 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 557 units permitted in Hendry County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hendry County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $46k; list at $375k implies a 706% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.8% in LaBelle — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FN28C6789N1HC1
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29