128 Davis And Smith Rd

Manchester, KY 40962

$20,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $945/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $542/mo
• Annual: $6,503/yr
• Cap rate: 42.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 130.36%
• DSCR: 6.80
• 1% rule: 4.73%
• Cash to close: $5,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($945 rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($138 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#299 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clay County (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #130 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Goose Rock Elementary (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 211 students, 81% FRL); Clay County Middle School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #151 of 217 statewide, top 71%, 407 students, 74% FRL); Clay County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 717 students, 70% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP.
• Clay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 42.8% vs local median 2.6% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen countertops — Severe wear and tear, likely requiring replacement
• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Outdated and worn, likely in need of replacement or renovation
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Old-fashioned and worn, likely in need of replacement
• Major: Exterior siding — Worn and in need of repainting or replacement
• Major: Landscaping — Overgrown and in need of trimming and planting