128 Davis And Smith Rd · Manchester, KY 40962

$20,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1962 Poor condition 1.87 ac lot Est $16k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity. Serious inquiries only with the understanding this is a rehab project. Home needs a lot of TLC but has potential with +/- 1.8 acres of land. Property selling AS-IS. Cash and conventional purchases only. Will not qualify for any government loans. All offer will require proof of funds as well as a $1,000 escrow deposit.

Key facts

• 1.87 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: House; Lot approximately 1.87 acres; Located in a rural subdivision; County: Clay
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (carport present)
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Sewer via septic tank; Water from well
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Composition roof; Total building area 960
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing; Well water; Septic tank

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not provided
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms count not provided
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not provided
• Interior features: Exterior-entry unfinished basement; No fireplace; Total of 2 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($945 rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 42.8% vs local median 2.6% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#299 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clay County (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #130 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Goose Rock Elementary (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 211 students, 81% FRL); Clay County Middle School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #151 of 217 statewide, top 71%, 407 students, 74% FRL); Clay County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 717 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($138 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 130.36%
• DSCR: 6.80
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $16,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Davis And Smith Rd	0.02mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	3mo	$16,000	$17	97

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.12×
• Total profit: $45,461
• Equity at exit: $18,018

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.08×
• Total profit: $106,843
• Equity at exit: $38,856

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40962

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $259

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $20,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Contingent 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   status $20,000 Contingent 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $20,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    status Active
18. 2026-05-20
    status Pending
19. 2026-05-04
    status Active
20. 2026-05-01
    status Pending
21. 2026-04-28
    listed $20,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$907
• − Management: −$907
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $6,626
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,590
• After-tax cash flow: $4,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Poor 30/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations and repairs, including new countertops and cabinets, new bathroom fixtures, painting the exterior siding, and landscaping. However, the large property size and potential for improvement make it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen countertops — Severe wear and tear, likely requiring replacement
• Major Kitchen cabinets — Outdated and worn, likely in need of replacement or renovation
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Old-fashioned and worn, likely in need of replacement
• Major Exterior siding — Worn and in need of repainting or replacement
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and in need of trimming and planting

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New countertops and cabinets in the kitchen — Modernizing the kitchen will significantly improve its appearance and functionality, making it more appealing to potential buyers
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathroom will enhance the home's overall appeal and functionality, making it more attractive to potential buyers
• Both Painting the exterior siding — Painting the exterior will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value, both for resale and rental
• Both Landscaping and trimming — A well-maintained and landscaped yard will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value, both for resale and rental

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops · Severe wear and tear, likely requiring replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · Outdated and worn, likely in need of replacement or renovation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Old-fashioned and worn, likely in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Worn and in need of repainting or replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and in need of trimming and planting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New countertops and cabinets in the kitchen — Modernizing the kitchen will significantly improve its appearance and functionality, making it more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathroom will enhance the home's overall appeal and functionality, making it more attractive to potential buyers ↑
• Both Painting the exterior siding — Painting the exterior will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value, both for resale and rental ↑
• Both Landscaping and trimming — A well-maintained and landscaped yard will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value, both for resale and rental ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay County
• NCES district ID: 2101230
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $23,180
• Composite: 22.75/100
• National rank: #8031
• State rank: #130 of 165 in KY

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #14340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,390

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,004 people
• By 2030: 19,285 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 17,619 · -11.9%
• By 2050: 15,782 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 11,489 · -42.6%
• By 2100: 7,949 · -60.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+80.3) · D 9.2% · R 89.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: -56.5pp · 2024: -80.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+80.3 2020: R+77.0 2016: R+75.6 2012: R+68.6 2008: R+56.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.40%
• Current HPI: 290.0025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $20,000 ImagineMLS