3853 Thompsons Ln

Cave Spring, VA 24018

$339,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,303 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$397
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-802/mo
• Annual: $-9,619/yr
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.43%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-802 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (41.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (48.7% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (48.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Green Valley Elementary (math 63% / reading 75%, grade A-, #351 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 518 students, 43% FRL); Cave Spring Middle (math 76% / reading 82%, grade A+, #29 of 342 statewide, top 9%, 765 students, 30% FRL); Cave Spring High (math 86% / reading 90%, grade A, #13 of 319 statewide, top 4%, 1,056 students, 22% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $240k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?