3853 Thompsons Ln · Cave Spring, VA 24018

$339,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,303 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1960 0.30 ac lot $260/sqft · 82% above area Est $320k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious updated home that is move in ready. Featuring hardwood floors throughout and a freshly painted interior and Exterior. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this property offers a fenced, level yard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Relax on the covered, screened-in back porch. Car enthusiasts, hobbyists, or those needing extra storage will love the huge detached garage with electricity, plus an additional carport for added convenience. Located in the award winning Green Valley Elementary School district, this home combines comfort, functionality, and an unbeatable location. Don't delay, schedule your tour today! Information sourced from RKE County GIS. It is the responsibility of the Buyer and their agent to verify all information.

Key facts

• Additional carport
• Fenced level yard
• Huge detached garage

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FENCED LEVEL YARD
• COVERED SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• HUGE DETACHED GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-802 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (41.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (48.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (48.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Green Valley Elementary (math 63% / reading 75%, grade A-, #351 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 518 students, 43% FRL); Cave Spring Middle (math 76% / reading 82%, grade A+, #29 of 342 statewide, top 9%, 765 students, 30% FRL); Cave Spring High (math 86% / reading 90%, grade A, #13 of 319 statewide, top 4%, 1,056 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $240k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,808 (48.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.43%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,531
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: 6.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3823 Green Valley Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (+7%)	1mo	$300,000	$214	72
3633 Martinell Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (+7%)	1mo	$264,000	$189	60
3617 View Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (-4%)	2mo	$305,000	$244	59
3837 Antietam Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (-4%)	8mo	$290,000	$232	51
3718 Peace Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,443 (+11%)	20mo	$325,000	$225	41
3125 Penn Forest Blvd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (-12%)	22mo	$295,000	$258	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-106,275
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-159,456
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24018

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 16.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,402/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,753

Max offer price $197,390

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-610	-5% $-706	+0% $-802	+5% $-898	+10% $-994
Rent	-10% $-939	-5% $-870	+0% $-802	+5% $-733	+10% $-664
Rate	-1.0pp $-631	-0.5pp $-715	base $-802	+0.5pp $-889	+1.0pp $-979

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3620 Manassas Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,300	$1.92	45d	1	0.38mi
3413 Stonehenge Sq Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,900	$1.25	45d	1	0.45mi
3464 Colonial Ave Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	15d	5	0.53mi
3709 Antietam Dr Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	1016	$1,899	$1.87	15d	1	0.61mi
3420 Chaparral Dr Roanoke, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,549	$1.73	15d	5	0.68mi
3101 Honeywood Ln Roanoke, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	919	$1,690	$1.84	15d	7	0.70mi
3345 Circle Brook Dr Cave Spring, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,540	$1.54	15d	11	0.70mi
3363 View Ave Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,895	$1.87	23d	1	0.75mi
3273 Forest Ridge Rd Roanoke, VA	2.0	2.0	1252	$1,850	$1.48	23d	1	0.78mi
3366 Forest Ct Roanoke, VA	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,650	$1.61	23d	1	0.86mi
3368 Forest Ct Roanoke, VA	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,350	$2.29	15d	1	0.86mi
3602 Colonial Green Cir SW Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	1670	$2,622	$1.57	15d	1	0.89mi
3501 Normandy Ln Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,250	$1.35	15d	1	1.04mi
4356 Old Garst Ml Rd Cave Spring, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	889	$1,341	$1.51	15d	14	1.13mi
5260 Crossbow Cir Unit 8A Roanoke, VA	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,450	$1.23	23d	1	1.20mi
708 Townside Rd SW Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	881	$1,100	$1.25	45d	1	1.34mi
737 Townside Rd SW Unit 39 Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	45d	1	1.36mi
711 Townside Rd SW Unit 7 Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	881	$1,100	$1.25	46d	1	1.37mi
2679 Beverly Blvd SW Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,623	$1.62	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $339,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $339,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $339,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $345,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $345,000 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Spacious updated home that is move in ready. Featuring hardwood floors throughout and a freshly painted interior and Exterior. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this property offers a fenced, level yard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Relax on the covered, screened-in back porch. Car enthusiasts, hobbyists, or those needing extra storage will love the huge detached garage with electricity, plus an additional carport for added convenience. Located in the award winning Green Valley Elementary School district, this home combines comfort, functionality, and an unbeatable location. Don't delay, schedule your tour today! Information sourced from RKE County GIS. It is the responsibility of the Buyer and their agent to verify all information.

17. 2026-04-24
    price $349,950 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Spacious updated home that is move in ready. Featuring hardwood floors throughout and a freshly painted interior and Exterior. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this property offers a fenced, level yard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Relax on the covered, screened-in back porch. Car enthusiasts, hobbyists, or those needing extra storage will love the huge detached garage with electricity, plus an additional carport for added convenience. Located in the award winning Green Valley Elementary School district, this home combines comfort, functionality, and an unbeatable location. Don't delay, schedule your tour today! Information sourced from RKE County GIS. It is the responsibility of the Buyer and their agent to verify all information.

18. 2026-03-27
    price $369,950 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Spacious updated home that is move in ready. Featuring hardwood floors throughout and a freshly painted interior and Exterior. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this property offers a fenced, level yard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Relax on the covered, screened-in back porch. Car enthusiasts, hobbyists, or those needing extra storage will love the huge detached garage with electricity, plus an additional carport for added convenience. Located in the award winning Green Valley Elementary School district, this home combines comfort, functionality, and an unbeatable location. Don't delay, schedule your tour today! Information sourced from RKE County GIS. It is the responsibility of the Buyer and their agent to verify all information.

19. 2026-02-27
    listed $389,950 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Spacious updated home that is move in ready. Featuring hardwood floors throughout and a freshly painted interior and Exterior. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this property offers a fenced, level yard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Relax on the covered, screened-in back porch. Car enthusiasts, hobbyists, or those needing extra storage will love the huge detached garage with electricity, plus an additional carport for added convenience. Located in the award winning Green Valley Elementary School district, this home combines comfort, functionality, and an unbeatable location. Don't delay, schedule your tour today! Information sourced from RKE County GIS. It is the responsibility of the Buyer and their agent to verify all information.

20. 2026-02-04
    soldstatus $240,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,402 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,780 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$31/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$2,402
• − Insurance: −$2,362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$16,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,863
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103330
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,526
• Composite: 64.08/100
• National rank: #578
• State rank: #9 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cave Spring

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #3513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cave Spring, VA
• County: Roanoke County · 67,305 people
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,720
• Household income: $90,885
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 495.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,162 people
• By 2030: 99,793 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 101,965 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 103,328 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 108,641 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 104,845 · +6.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.5) · D 38.2% · R 60.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.5 2020: R+21.8 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -266.18%
• Current HPI: 176.0558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+43.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $345,000 MLSRV
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $349,950 MLSRV
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $369,950 MLSRV
• 2026-02-27 Listed $389,950 MLSRV
• 2026-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,402 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.