4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,884 sqft ·
Built 2020
· SingleFamily
· Coming Soon
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,555/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,678
Tax + insurance
−$820
HOA
−$76
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$537
Net cashflow
$-555/mo
Annual
$-6,660/yr
Cap rate
4.21%
Cash-on-cash
-7.43%
DSCR
0.67
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$89,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-555 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (30.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (20.1% below list).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $222k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Stockdick J H (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,313 students, 55% FRL); Paetow H S (math 47% / reading 64%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 3,537 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 27% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FNT61FFQXBBCW5
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29