22906 Ginosa Trail Trl · Houston, TX 77449

$320,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2020 0.25 ac lot Est $303k · 5% over $76/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-555 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stockdick J H (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,313 students, 55% FRL); Paetow H S (math 47% / reading 64%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 3,537 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 27% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,956 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.43%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,324
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22914 San Giorgio Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,885 (+0%)	4mo	$299,999	$159	81
4523 Verona Hills Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-4%)	5mo	$305,000	$169	80
4403 Salerno Gulf Way	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,780 (-6%)	6mo	$294,000	$165	76
22623 Loreto Costa Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,756 (-7%)	1mo	$296,000	$169	76
4318 Fenetre Forest St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (+4%)	2mo	$310,000	$158	74
22843 Castello Lakes Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,036 (+8%)	2mo	$320,000	$157	72
4311 Nervesa Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,766 (-6%)	1mo	$280,000	$159	68
4314 Sassari Ct	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,073 (+10%)	2mo	$334,625	$161	63
22818 Theodoli Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,630 (-14%)	4mo	$309,000	$190	59
4214 Fornari Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,786 (-5%)	4mo	$305,000	$171	59
4315 Isoletta Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-6%)	6mo	$280,000	$158	57
22622 Cremona Village Trl	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,092 (+11%)	6mo	$323,000	$154	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-70,562
• Equity at exit: $73,105

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-112,738
• Equity at exit: $73,292

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$686 /mo · $8,235/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$76
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,258

Max offer price $221,956

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4411 Andorno Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,221	$1.06	24d	1	0.18mi
22841 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,249	$1.54	5d	1	0.28mi
22855 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,399	$1.44	12d	1	0.29mi
22851 Terazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1740	$3,304	$1.90	1d	1	0.29mi
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	21d	1	0.30mi
22865 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,759	$1.37	15d	1	0.30mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	43d	1	0.33mi
22808 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,529	$1.26	16d	1	0.34mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	12d	1	0.34mi
22719 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	17d	1	0.36mi
22629 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	5d	1	0.36mi
22717 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	5d	1	0.36mi
22627 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	5d	1	0.37mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	43d	1	0.37mi
22722 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,559	$1.27	16d	1	0.37mi
22738 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	19d	1	0.38mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	43d	1	0.38mi
22720 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	17d	1	0.38mi
22824 Frassino Pl Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	1d	1	0.38mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	43d	1	0.39mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	5d	1	0.39mi
22617 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,279	$1.56	43d	1	0.39mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	5d	1	0.39mi
22728 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,369	$1.42	24d	1	0.40mi
22626 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,699	$1.35	43d	1	0.40mi
22712 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,179	$1.49	24d	1	0.41mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	43d	1	0.41mi
4110 Rapallo Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,600	$1.13	5d	1	0.41mi
22628 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,659	$1.32	15d	1	0.41mi
22622 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	43d	1	0.42mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	15d	1	0.44mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	12d	1	0.44mi
23100 Clay Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,299	$2.33	2d	35	0.56mi
23030 Cunningham Falls Trl Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1213	$2,900	$2.39	5d	244	0.67mi
5103 Visionary Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1692	$3,096	$1.83	1d	9	0.70mi
21919 Clay Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$3,574	$2.16	1d	1	1.04mi
4019 Ventana Ridge Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,218	$1.57	2d	4	1.08mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 21952 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,192	$1.36	2d	1	1.09mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,235	$1.39	10d	1	1.10mi
3819 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,050	$1.56	43d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $76 · $912/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listed $320,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,235 · $686/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,235 · $686/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$8,235
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,453
• − Management: −$2,453
• − HOA: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$12,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,934
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $320,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,235 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.