23 Bailey Hill Vlg

Dayville, CT 06239

$199,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2025 · Other · Under Contract · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,032/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$470
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-246/mo
• Annual: $-2,953/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (17.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Killingly School District (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #119 of 153 in CT (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Killingly Intermediate School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #132 of 175 statewide, top 76%, 667 students, 52% FRL); Killingly High School (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #112 of 194 statewide, top 60%, 788 students, 43% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 149 units permitted in Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.