23 Bailey Hill Vlg · Dayville, CT 06239

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Other · 125 Days on market

Built 2025 $156/sqft · 50% below area Est $397k · 50% under $470/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, brand new mobile home in excellent Killingly location! This spacious home features 1280 square feet of living spaces, with a bright sunny interior. The large eat-in kitchen has stainless appliances, a farm house sink, a spacious center island with microwave, and range hood. The living room has built in storage, and a ship lap wall for tv mounting. The primary bedroom suite has a private full bath, and extra large closet. There are two additional bedrooms, and another full bath. The mudroom provides a welcoming entrance, along with washer and dryer hookups and storage areas. Other features include energy efficient propane heat, craftsman style doors, low "e" thermal windows, and lots of recessed lighting throughout. There are beautifully built front and side entrances with white railings and composite steps, and there is off street parking for 2/3 vehicles. This home is located in Bailey Hill Village mobile home park, a well run and nicely maintained neighborhood. The monthly lot charge for the leased land is $470, which covers plowing of the main driveway and septic pumping. The homeowner is responsible for their own lawn care, plowing of their driveway area, and shoveling their walkways and steps. Estimated property taxes are $3,400. Excellent location, on a quiet country road close to RI, with easy access to all major routes. Exceptional opportunity to live in a brand new home with a very affordable budget. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 125 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (17.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Killingly School District (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #119 of 153 in CT (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Killingly Intermediate School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #132 of 175 statewide, top 76%, 667 students, 52% FRL); Killingly High School (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #112 of 194 statewide, top 60%, 788 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 149 units permitted in Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $164,296 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,614
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -49.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-47,744
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-60,456
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06239

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$470
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,344

Max offer price $164,296

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-108	-5% $-177	+0% $-246	+5% $-315	+10% $-384
Rent	-10% $-407	-5% $-326	+0% $-246	+5% $-166	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-145	-0.5pp $-195	base $-246	+0.5pp $-298	+1.0pp $-351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $470 · $5,640/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-16
   price $199,900 1483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1483 chars)

   Beautiful, brand new mobile home in excellent Killingly location! This spacious home features 1280 square feet of living spaces, with a bright sunny interior. The large eat-in kitchen has stainless appliances, a farm house sink, a spacious center island with microwave, and range hood. The living room has built in storage, and a ship lap wall for tv mounting. The primary bedroom suite has a private full bath, and extra large closet. There are two additional bedrooms, and another full bath. The mudroom provides a welcoming entrance, along with washer and dryer hookups and storage areas. Other features include energy efficient propane heat, craftsman style doors, low "e" thermal windows, and lots of recessed lighting throughout. There are beautifully built front and side entrances with white railings and composite steps, and there is off street parking for 2/3 vehicles. This home is located in Bailey Hill Village mobile home park, a well run and nicely maintained neighborhood. The monthly lot charge for the leased land is $470, which covers plowing of the main driveway and septic pumping. The homeowner is responsible for their own lawn care, plowing of their driveway area, and shoveling their walkways and steps. Estimated property taxes are $3,400. Excellent location, on a quiet country road close to RI, with easy access to all major routes. Exceptional opportunity to live in a brand new home with a very affordable budget. Schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-03-16
   price $214,900 1483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1483 chars)

   Beautiful, brand new mobile home in excellent Killingly location! This spacious home features 1280 square feet of living spaces, with a bright sunny interior. The large eat-in kitchen has stainless appliances, a farm house sink, a spacious center island with microwave, and range hood. The living room has built in storage, and a ship lap wall for tv mounting. The primary bedroom suite has a private full bath, and extra large closet. There are two additional bedrooms, and another full bath. The mudroom provides a welcoming entrance, along with washer and dryer hookups and storage areas. Other features include energy efficient propane heat, craftsman style doors, low "e" thermal windows, and lots of recessed lighting throughout. There are beautifully built front and side entrances with white railings and composite steps, and there is off street parking for 2/3 vehicles. This home is located in Bailey Hill Village mobile home park, a well run and nicely maintained neighborhood. The monthly lot charge for the leased land is $470, which covers plowing of the main driveway and septic pumping. The homeowner is responsible for their own lawn care, plowing of their driveway area, and shoveling their walkways and steps. Estimated property taxes are $3,400. Excellent location, on a quiet country road close to RI, with easy access to all major routes. Exceptional opportunity to live in a brand new home with a very affordable budget. Schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-01-23
   listed $229,900 Active 1483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1483 chars)

   Beautiful, brand new mobile home in excellent Killingly location! This spacious home features 1280 square feet of living spaces, with a bright sunny interior. The large eat-in kitchen has stainless appliances, a farm house sink, a spacious center island with microwave, and range hood. The living room has built in storage, and a ship lap wall for tv mounting. The primary bedroom suite has a private full bath, and extra large closet. There are two additional bedrooms, and another full bath. The mudroom provides a welcoming entrance, along with washer and dryer hookups and storage areas. Other features include energy efficient propane heat, craftsman style doors, low "e" thermal windows, and lots of recessed lighting throughout. There are beautifully built front and side entrances with white railings and composite steps, and there is off street parking for 2/3 vehicles. This home is located in Bailey Hill Village mobile home park, a well run and nicely maintained neighborhood. The monthly lot charge for the leased land is $470, which covers plowing of the main driveway and septic pumping. The homeowner is responsible for their own lawn care, plowing of their driveway area, and shoveling their walkways and steps. Estimated property taxes are $3,400. Excellent location, on a quiet country road close to RI, with easy access to all major routes. Exceptional opportunity to live in a brand new home with a very affordable budget. Schedule your showing today!

4. 2012-11-05
   historical
5. 2012-05-05
   listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − HOA: −$5,640
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,480
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killingly School District
• NCES district ID: 0902070
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,485
• Composite: 28.71/100
• National rank: #6684
• State rank: #119 of 153 in CT

Livability — Dayville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Windham County · 30,529 people
• Metro: Worcester, MA-CT
• Population (ZIP): 11,185
• Household income: $74,267
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 223.0

Population outlook (Northeastern Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 104,160

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Russian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northeastern Connecticut

• 2024 margin: R (+15.4) · D 41.5% · R 57.0% · Other 1.5%
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.75%
• Current HPI: 233.1548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Worcester, MA-CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+233.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $199,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $214,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $229,900 Smart MLS
• 2012-11-05 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2012-05-05 Listed $59,900 Smart MLS