4985 County Road 409d

Henderson, TX 75654

$290,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-954/mo
• Annual: $-11,443/yr
• Cap rate: 2.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.09%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-954 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (58.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (57.4% below list).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (58.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Henderson ISD (town): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #573 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.