4985 County Road 409d · Henderson, TX 75654

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 2008 3.82 ac lot $180/sqft · 41% below area Est $491k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on market due to buyer's situation changing--no fault of the property! Your homestead awaits! USDA, FHA, VA financingwelcome so you can keep your cash in your pocket. Located just outside of Henderson, this location is convenient to town, butin a country setting. This beautiful 2008 build is set on a serene 3.86 acre tract, fuly fenced and gated, with room to roam. Theroof, HVAC, and insulation in the attic have been recently updated, so you can enjoy worry-free ownership for years to come. The fully fenced backyard is overlooked by a new porch on the back of the home. Inside, you'll find trendy rustic styling with aspacious 3/2 floor plan. Highlights include a massive primary closet, and generously sized guest bedrooms. The fireplace is thefocal point of the living area, and the open concept kitchen will make entertaining friends and family a true joy. Schedule yourshowing today, and make this house your home!

Key facts

• 3.86 acre tract
• Fully fenced
• Gated

Tags

• 3.86 ACRE TRACT
• FULLY FENCED
• GATED
• RECENTLY UPDATED ROOF
• RECENTLY UPDATED HVAC
• RECENTLY UPDATED INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-954 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (58.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (57.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (58.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Henderson ISD (town): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #573 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,551 (58.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.09%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 19.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,769
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -40.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $97,182
• Equity at exit: $261,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $333,889
• Equity at exit: $563,406

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75654

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 19.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,447/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-954

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,442

Max offer price $121,551

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $290,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $290,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-03-02
    listed $295,000 Active 929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (929 chars)

    Back on market due to buyer's situation changing--no fault of the property! Your homestead awaits! USDA, FHA, VA financingwelcome so you can keep your cash in your pocket. Located just outside of Henderson, this location is convenient to town, butin a country setting. This beautiful 2008 build is set on a serene 3.86 acre tract, fuly fenced and gated, with room to roam. Theroof, HVAC, and insulation in the attic have been recently updated, so you can enjoy worry-free ownership for years to come. The fully fenced backyard is overlooked by a new porch on the back of the home. Inside, you'll find trendy rustic styling with aspacious 3/2 floor plan. Highlights include a massive primary closet, and generously sized guest bedrooms. The fireplace is thefocal point of the living area, and the open concept kitchen will make entertaining friends and family a true joy. Schedule yourshowing today, and make this house your home!

17. 2026-02-24
    listed $295,000 Active 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Back on market due to buyer's situation changing--no fault of the property! Your homestead awaits! USDA, FHA, VA financing welcome so you can keep your cash in your pocket. Located just outside of Henderson, this location is convenient to town, but in a country setting. This beautiful 2008 build is set on a serene 3.86 acre tract, fuly fenced and gated, with room to roam. The roof, HVAC, and insulation in the attic have been recently updated, so you can enjoy worry-free ownership for years to come. The fully fenced backyard is overlooked by a new porch on the back of the home. Inside, you'll find trendy rustic styling with a spacious 3/2 floor plan. Highlights include a massive primary closet, and generously sized guest bedrooms. The fireplace is the focal point of the living area, and the open concept kitchen will make entertaining friends and family a true joy. Schedule your showing today, and make this house your home!

18. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus
19. 2023-11-13
    soldstatus Closed
20. 2023-08-25
    listed $265,000 Active
21. 2008-08-11
    soldstatus
22. 2008-07-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,447 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,307 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,860/yr (+$155/mo · 53.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$3,447
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,185
• − Management: −$1,185
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$17,133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,112
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822970
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $46,296
• Composite: 27.91/100
• National rank: #6868
• State rank: #573 of 826 in TX

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #8434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,184

Population outlook (Rusk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,498 people
• By 2030: 52,093 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 50,866 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 49,696 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 48,583 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 43,265 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 16% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Rusk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.4) · D 20.0% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -59.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.83%
• Current HPI: 397.5
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $295,000 GTAR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $295,000 LAAR
• 2023-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-13 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2023-08-25 Listed $265,000 LAAR
• 2008-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,447 · -10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.